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🗞️ Why is Eli Lilly Stock Falling
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Eli Lilly’s Weight Loss Pill Falls Short
Eli Lilly (LLY) delivered a stellar earnings beat Thursday, hiking its 2025 guidance and posting blockbuster results driven by surging demand for its diabetes and weight loss drugs.
The pharma giant raised its fiscal 2025 sales outlook to $60-62 billion from $58-61 billion, while boosting earnings guidance to $21.75-23 per share.
However, investors focused on disappointing late-stage trial data for its experimental obesity pill, orforglipron.
The highest dose helped patients lose just over 12% of body weight, falling short of Wall Street's 13-14% expectations.
This sent shares tumbling 14% despite Mounjaro generating $5.2 billion (up 68%) and Zepbound delivering $3.38 billion (up 172%) in quarterly revenue.
CEO David Ricks remained optimistic, telling CNBC that "tirzepatide will likely become the bestselling drug in the industry in its third year."
Our Takeaway
While the oral pill data disappointed, Lilly's core injection business remains incredibly strong.
The company's dominant position in the massive GLP-1 market should continue driving growth, even if the oral formulation takes longer to perfect.
Former Zillow exec targets $1.3T
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Market Overview
Markets closed mixed on Thursday as investors weighed Trump's aggressive tariff announcements against solid earnings momentum.
The Dow fell 224 points as Caterpillar warned about tariff impacts, while tech stocks rallied after Trump announced 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports, but exempted companies building in the U.S.
Semiconductor stocks initially popped on the domestic manufacturing exemption, with AMD gaining 5.7% and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF rising over 1%.
Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs officially took effect on Thursday, though markets have largely shrugged off trade concerns given continued economic strength.
Weekly jobless claims rose modestly to 226,000, while productivity jumped 2.4% in Q2, both signaling economic resilience.
The major averages remain on track for weekly gains, with the Nasdaq up 2.9% and the S&P 500 gaining 1.6%.
Stock Moves Deciphered 📈
Apple (AAPL) – Shares of the tech giant gained 3% after announcing $100 billion U.S. investment commitment, benefiting from Trump's semiconductor tariff exemptions for domestic manufacturers.
Intel (INTC) – The chip maker fell 3% after Trump called for CEO Lip-Bu Tan's resignation, citing conflicts of interest without providing specifics.
Crocs (CROX) – The footwear retailer crashed 29% despite an earnings beat as it withdrew full-year outlook, citing uncertain operating environment and challenging retail conditions.
Headlines You Can't Miss
Caterpillar dropped 2.5% after warning about tariff impacts on the construction equipment business.
Warner Bros Discovery gained 3% despite missing cash flow estimates with streaming subscriber growth.
Peloton surged 17% on earnings beat and $100 million cost reduction plan.
CommScope jumped 87% on $10.5 billion asset sale to Amphenol, and Bank of America double upgrade.
Firefly Aerospace priced IPO at $45 per share, above the expected range.
Christopher Waller emerges as Fed chair frontrunner according to Bloomberg sources.
Trending Stocks
DoorDash (DASH) – The food delivery giant crushed Q2 expectations with earnings of 65 cents per share versus 44 cents expected, while revenue of $3.28 billion beat estimates of $3.16 billion.
Strong order volume and market share gains drove the outperformance. Shares jumped 6% after hours.
CEO Quote🎤: “In Q2, we generated new quarterly records for Total Orders, Marketplace GOV, Revenue, and GAAP net income. In Q2 2025, we also celebrated passing 10 billion lifetime orders globally.”
Airbnb (ABNB) – Despite beating Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, shares fell 7% on softer Q3 guidance. The company expects $4.02-4.10 billion in Q3 revenue versus $4.05 billion consensus.
Slower booking trends in key markets weighed on forward-looking metrics despite strong current quarter performance.
CEO Quote🎤: “Despite global economic uncertainty early in the quarter, travel demand picked up, and nights booked on Airbnb accelerated from April to July.”
Duolingo (DUOL) – The language learning platform soared 14% after raising Q3 revenue guidance to $257-261 million versus $253 million expected.
Strong user engagement and subscription growth drove the beat, with daily active users continuing to expand globally across multiple demographics.
CEO Quote🎤: “We exceeded our own high expectations for bookings and revenue this quarter, and did it while expanding profitability.”
What’s Next?
Key Earnings Today 👇
McDonald’s (MCD): Q2 revenue forecast at $6.7 billion vs. $6.49 billion last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to grow from $2.97 per share to $3.15 per share.
Disney (DIS): Q2 revenue forecast at $23.75 billion vs. $23.16 billion last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to grow from $1.39 per share to $1.44 per share.
AppLovin (APP): Q2 revenue forecast at $1.22 billion vs. $1.08 billion last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to grow from $1.17 per share to $2.32 per share.
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