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- 🗞️ United Airlines Turns Bullish
🗞️ United Airlines Turns Bullish
Earnings preview: NFLX, PEP, IBKR
Market Performance
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Nasdaq: 20,730.49 (+0.26%)
Dow Jones: 44,254.78 (+0.53%)
United Airlines Signals Travel Recovery
Here's something that should give airline investors hope 👇
United Airlines (UAL) just beat Q2 earnings expectations, and its CEO says travel demand is finally picking up after a surprisingly weak first half of 2025.
The airline reported adjusted earnings of $3.87 per share, versus the expected $3.81, although revenue of $15.24 billion came in slightly below the forecast of $15.35 billion.
More importantly, CEO Scott Kirby delivered a confidence boost: "The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year."
Travel demand, particularly from price-sensitive customers on domestic routes, had been weaker than airline executives expected at the start of the year, sending airfares tumbling.
However, there are encouraging signs: premium revenue jumped 5.6% as customers continue to pay more for comfort, and United raised its full-year earnings guidance to $9-11 per share from its previous recessionary scenario planning.
Our Takeaway
United's earnings reveal the airline industry's emerging recovery narrative after a brutal first half.
While domestic pricing remains under pressure, premium travel demand shows resilience, and international routes are stabilizing.
The key catalyst is reduced economic uncertainty, which gives consumers the confidence to book travel again.
United's optimistic outlook suggests the worst may be behind the sector, making it worth watching other airline earnings for confirmation of this trend.
A valuation score of 88 indicates that UAL is one of the cheapest stocks in Transportation.
Market Overview
Stock futures pointed lower on Thursday morning, despite a strong finish on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious about Trump's comments on Powell.
Futures tied to the Dow fell 68 points (0.15%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both dipped about 0.2%.
Wednesday's volatile session saw initial selling pressure from reports of Powell's firing, but markets rebounded strongly as Trump walked back those plans.
The healthcare sector led gains with a 1.22% jump, while energy lagged with a 0.84% decline.
New inflation data added to concerns this week. Tuesday's consumer price index showed increases from May levels in June, while Wednesday's wholesale prices remained flat but revealed concerning underlying trends.
As one strategist noted, the PPI data "doesn't include the direct impact of tariffs, meaning the $27 billion in tariff revenue collected in June will have to be absorbed by foreign manufacturers, domestic corporations or, ultimately, the consumer."
Bank earnings continued with mixed results, despite generally beating expectations, as investors focused more on trends in net interest income and forward guidance.
Headlines You Can't Miss
ASML shares plunged 8.3% on weak 2026 guidance, warning of potential no growth next year due to macro and geopolitical factors.
Ford dropped 3% on massive recall of 700,000 SUVs over fuel leak fire risks, according to NHTSA.
Motorola Solutions gained 0.4% as UBS initiates buy rating with $490 target, citing 20% upside potential.
Trump-Powell drama sent markets on wild ride before rebound, as president denied plans to fire Fed chair after initial reports.
Bitcoin surged 2% to $119,172 as Trump said crypto bills now have votes to advance after the White House meeting.
Circle jumped 11% and Coinbase gained 2% on renewed crypto legislation optimism following Trump's social media post.
VanEck Semiconductor ETF tracks to snap seven-week win streak, down 0.6% week-to-date led by ASML losses.
Danish official calls Trump's 30% EU tariffs "completely unacceptable" and "unjustified," warning of countermeasures.
Trending Stocks
Morgan Stanley (MS) - The investment bank fell 3.6% despite beating Q2 estimates with $2.13 EPS vs $1.96 expected and revenue of $16.79 billion vs $16.07 billion anticipated.
While the top and bottom-line beats were solid, investors focused on underlying business trends and forward-looking concerns.
CEO Quote🎤: “Wealth continues to deliver, adding $59 billion of net new assets and $43 billion of fee-based flows. Total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management reached $8.2 trillion.”
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - The pharmaceutical giant surged 6.19% after crushing Q2 expectations with adjusted EPS of $2.77 vs $2.68 expected and revenue of $23.74 billion vs estimates of $22.84 billion.
The company also raised full-year adjusted earnings guidance, signaling confidence in its pipeline and operational execution.
CEO Quote🎤: “Our portfolio and pipeline position us for elevated growth in the second half of the year, with game-changing approvals and submissions anticipated in areas like lung and bladder cancer, major depressive disorder, psoriasis, surgery and cardiovascular.”
Goldman Sachs (GS) - The investment bank rose after reporting strong Q2 results with EPS of $10.91 vs $9.53 expected and revenue of $14.58 billion vs. estimates of $13.47 billion.
Trading operations generated over $7.7 billion in revenue, surpassing the FactSet consensus by $840 million and driving outperformance.
CEO Quote🎤: “At this time, the economy and markets are generally responding positively to the evolving policy environment. But as developments rarely unfold in a straight line, we remain very focused on risk management.”
What’s Next?
Key Earnings Today 👇
Netflix (NFLX): Q2 revenue forecast at $11.04 billion vs. $9.56 billion last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to grow from $4.88 per share to $7.06 per share.
Pepsi (PEP): Q2 revenue forecast at $22.3 billion vs. $22.5 billion last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to narrow from $2.28 per share to $2.03 per share.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR): Q2 revenue forecast at $1.37 billion vs. $1.23 billion last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to increase from $0.44 per share to $0.45 per share.
Macro News
Weekly jobless claims data due Thursday
June retail sales report release
Import and export price indexes for the last month
Track upcoming news and earnings on your portfolio companies with Ziggma.
Chart of the Day
Source: Carbon Finance
Meme of the Day
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