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- 💰 Tesla Delivers in Q3
💰 Tesla Delivers in Q3
Big moves decoded: FICO, OXY, and Nvidia
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Market Performance
S&P 500: 6,715.35 ⬆️ 0.06%
Nasdaq: 22,844.05 ⬆️ 0.39%
Dow Jones: 46,519.72 ⬆️ 0.17%
Tesla’s Deliveries Rise in Q3
Tesla (TSLA) reported third-quarter vehicle deliveries that surpassed Wall Street expectations, shipping 497,099 vehicles, a 7% year-over-year increase and exceeding the consensus estimate of 447,600.
However, paradoxically, shares dropped by more than 5% following the announcement.
The headline numbers mask a more complex story.
👉 Tesla's European sales continue to suffer from consumer backlash against Elon Musk's political activism and intensifying competition from Volkswagen and BYD.
👉 Year-to-date deliveries are down 6% compared to 2024, highlighting persistent challenges in key markets.
Yet there's a silver lining: U.S. sales strengthened as buyers rushed to purchase EVs before the federal tax credit expired on September 30.
Additionally, Tesla's energy storage business deployed 12.5 GWh of products, a significant increase from 6.9 GWh in Q3 of 2024, demonstrating diversification beyond automotive.
Tesla's stock has surged 40% in Q3, turning positive for the year after a brutal start to 2025. The company will provide detailed financials on October 22.
Tesla stock currently has a Ziggma Stock Score of 96, and ranks in the bottom half percentile in terms of valuation.
Our Takeaway
Tesla's ability to beat delivery expectations while navigating headwinds shows operational resilience.
However, the adverse stock reaction suggests investors are looking beyond quarterly beats and focusing on margin pressure, European market share erosion, and whether the post-tax-credit U.S. market can sustain momentum.
The growth in energy storage is promising, but it remains a fraction of the automotive revenue.
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Market Overview 📈
All three major U.S. indexes closed at record highs on Thursday as investors shrugged off concerns about the ongoing government shutdown, which entered its second day.
The market's resilience was particularly notable given Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's warning that GDP may "see a hit" from the shutdown.
The S&P 500 reached a fresh all-time intraday high, supported by strength in technology stocks.
Weighing on sentiment were Bessent's comments about potential economic damage from the shutdown.
"This isn't the way to have a discussion, shutting down the government and lowering the GDP," he told CNBC. "We could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth, and a hit to working America."
Markets appear to be betting the shutdown will be brief, as past shutdowns have historically had minimal lasting impact on equities.
The shutdown has created an economic data blackout, with Friday's September jobs report postponed indefinitely.
Stock Moves Deciphered 📈
🛢️ Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Occidental Petroleum fell over 7% after announcing the sale of its OxyChem petrochemical division to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion in cash.
The transaction represents a significant strategic move for Occidental, allowing the company to reduce debt and focus on its core oil and gas operations.
The sale provides Occidental with financial flexibility at a time when oil producers are navigating volatile commodity prices and pressures related to the energy transition.
💉 Humana (HUM)
Humana gained 4% following the release of encouraging Medicare Advantage star ratings data for 2026.
Approximately 20% of members are now enrolled in plans rated 4 stars or above, with enrollment in 4.5-star plans rising to 14% from just 3% in 2025. T
hese ratings directly impact government bonus payments and member retention, making the improvement crucial for future profitability.
🏡 Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
Fair Isaac surged 18% after unveiling a direct licensing model that allows mortgage lenders to bypass credit bureaus for FICO scores.
This strategic pivot eliminates the approximately 100% markup that credit bureaus charge, creating immediate cost savings for lenders while expanding FICO's market share.
Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte endorsed the initiative as providing "creative solutions" for consumers, adding regulatory legitimacy to the strategic shift.
Headlines You Can't Miss 👀
🏛️ Supreme Court delayed decision on President Trump's authority to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook until January oral arguments, potentially punting past Fed Chair Powell's term expiration.
🎬 Disney reputation plunged to multiyear lows after pulling Jimmy Kimmel temporarily off air, alienating both Democrats and Republicans according to Morning Consult data analyzed by Jefferies.
🎯 Target faces increased downside risk, according to Truist, which has slashed its price target by $19 to $83, citing "multiple missteps" in merchandising and marketing that have hurt consumer impressions.
📊 QQQ ETF on pace for 107th consecutive close above its 50-day moving average, tying its longest streak since 2017, with the ETF up 27% over that span.
🚗 Ford reported that all-electric vehicle sales jumped 30.2% in Q3 to a new quarterly record of 30,600 units, although they still significantly trailed Tesla's deliveries.
🏥 Acadia Healthcare shares jumped 7% after activist investor Khrom Capital filed to push the company to explore strategic alternatives; stock remains down 33% year-to-date.
☕ Starbucks shares rose 2.6% after announcing a slight dividend increase from 61 cents to 62 cents per share quarterly, signaling confidence in cash generation.
Trending Stocks 📊
🧪 Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Eastman Chemical experienced mixed analyst coverage, with Citigroup raising its price target to $70 from $68 while maintaining a "buy" rating, even as Jefferies lowered its target to $78 due to macro uncertainty.
This divergent analyst sentiment reflects the challenging operating environment facing chemical companies.
The company was recently removed from the FTSE All-World Index, which may create additional selling pressure from index-tracking funds.
🤖 Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia surged to a record high above $191 per share, extending gains by over 1% as merger-and-acquisition activity heated up across the AI industry.
The chipmaker has positioned itself at the forefront of AI dealmaking, including a $100 billion investment into OpenAI for data center development and a $5 billion deal with Intel to manufacture chips.
Nvidia also announced a collaboration to invest in the U.K.'s AI startup ecosystem alongside Accel and Hoxton Ventures, further cementing its leadership position in the generative AI boom that shows no signs of slowing.
💊 Biogen (BIIB)
The pharmaceutical company benefited from broader sector strength following the Trump administration's announcement of a deal with Pfizer for its "most-favored-nation" drug pricing policy.
Under the agreement, Pfizer will sell certain drugs at lower prices on a new "direct to consumer" website called "TrumpRx."
The announcement created positive sentiment across the pharmaceutical sector, with investors viewing it as a potentially constructive approach to drug pricing rather than the punitive measures previously feared.
What’s Next?
Key earnings and macro news 👇
💂 September jobs report release postponed indefinitely due to government shutdown and data blackout
🏦 Federal Reserve October meeting expected to announce interest rate cut following weak ADP data
🚗 Tesla Q3 financial results scheduled for October 22 investor update
📈 Senate returns Friday; shutdown predicted to last nearly two weeks per prediction markets
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