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- 🗞️ Rivian Stuns Wall Street
🗞️ Rivian Stuns Wall Street
PLUS: Tech sell-off continues
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Market Performance
S&P 500: 6,832.76 ⬇️ 1.57%
Nasdaq: 22,597.15 ⬇️ 2.03%
Dow Jones: 49,451.98 ⬇️ 1.34%
Rivian Auto Beats Q4 Estimates
Rivian Automotive beat Wall Street's Q4 expectations and outlined an ambitious 2026 plan, targeting a 47-59% jump in vehicle deliveries to between 62,000 and 67,000 units.
The star of the show? The R2 SUV, launching in Q2 at around $45,000—half the material cost of its R1 siblings and positioned to become "the majority of the volume" by late 2027.
But here's the catch: Rivian expects to burn through $1.8-$2.1 billion in adjusted pre-tax losses this year while ramping up R2 production.
CEO RJ Scaringe called 2026 an "inflection point," but investors are betting on promises, not profits—yet.
The company posted its first-ever annual gross profit of $144 million in 2025, though $120 million of that came from a software joint venture with Volkswagen, not vehicle sales.
With $6.59 billion in liquidity and Amazon still backing its delivery van business, Rivian has runway. But the R2 needs to deliver—literally and figuratively.
Our Takeaway
Rivian's betting big on the R2 to shift from niche luxury EVs to mass-market appeal. The $45,000 price point could be a game-changer, but execution is everything.
If production ramps smoothly and demand materializes, this could finally be Rivian's breakout moment. If not, those losses will keep piling up.
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Market Overview 📈
Thursday's selloff wasn't about rates or tariffs—it was about AI anxiety.
Stocks tumbled as investors grappled with the darker side of artificial intelligence: job displacement and business disruption.
Cisco Systems led the Dow lower, plunging 12% after issuing disappointing guidance despite in-line earnings.
Meanwhile, software stocks extended their brutal selloff, with Palantir down nearly 5% (now down 27% YTD) and Autodesk falling 4% (down 24% YTD). The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) dropped 3%, now 31% below its recent high.
The AI disruption narrative spread beyond tech. Trucking and logistics stocks like C.H. Robinson and RXO plummeted over 20% on fears that AI freight-scaling tools like SemiCab would slash demand.
Even Morgan Stanley faced pressure amid fears AI would disrupt wealth management.
Investors rotated into defensive plays—Walmart and Coca-Cola gained, with consumer staples and utilities leading S&P 500 sectors higher. Silver futures dropped 10% as the risk-off mood intensified.
Economic data showed initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 (slightly above the 225,000 estimate), while existing home sales dropped 8.4% to 3.91 million, missing expectations.
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Stock Moves Deciphered 📈
🏡 CBRE Group (CBRE)
CBRE Group saw its stock fall 8.8% despite reporting strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results that beat earnings estimates.
The decline was attributed to a slight revenue miss and a likely "sell-the-news" reaction, as investors took profits after a period of strong performance driven by its data center solutions.
🏥 Baxter International (BAX)
Baxter International's stock plummeted 16% after the company announced disappointing fourth-quarter results.
The medical technology firm missed earnings expectations, reporting an adjusted EPS of $0.44 amid significant margin pressure, a $485 million goodwill impairment, and a cautious outlook for 2026, shaking investor confidence in its operational performance.
⬇️ Tyler Technologies (TYL)
Tyler Technologies experienced a 15% drop in its share price after the public sector software provider's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue fell short of analyst expectations.
Despite solid recurring revenue growth, the miss raised investor concerns about the company's ability to meet its ambitious 2026 growth targets.
Headlines You Can't Miss 👀
📉 Apple shares dropped 5%, marking its worst day since April, amid Siri upgrade delays and FTC scrutiny over alleged political bias in Apple News.
🍔 Restaurant Brands gained 1.3% in premarket trading after beating Q4 earnings and revenue expectations, with EPS of $0.96 versus $0.95 expected.
🔋 QuantumScape shares dropped 9.3% after the battery tech company guided for an adjusted EBITDA loss of $250-$275 million for 2026, in line with expectations.
🍺 Anheuser-Busch InBev climbed 2.6% after Q4 earnings of $0.95 per share beat the $0.90 consensus, with revenue of $15.56 billion topping estimates.
🧀 Kraft Heinz fell 2.7% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral, cutting its price target to $22 from $24 amid persistent challenges.
🍔 McDonald's slipped less than 1% in after-hours trading despite beating Q4 estimates with EPS of $3.12 versus $3.05 expected on revenue of $7.01 billion.
Trending Stocks 📊
💰Equinix (EQIX)
Equinix shares surged 12% following the release of its impressive fourth-quarter results and a robust 2026 forecast.
The data center giant reported record bookings, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure, and announced its 11th consecutive annual dividend increase.
💰Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
Akamai Technologies' stock climbed nearly 12%, hitting a new 52-week high. The surge was fueled by strong investor optimism surrounding the company's position in the growing AI landscape, with its edge computing and security solutions seeing increased demand ahead of its earnings announcement.
🚀 Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)
Zebra Technologies saw its stock jump 14% after delivering a strong fourth-quarter revenue beat and a bullish forecast for 2026. The company also announced a new $1 billion share repurchase program, further boosting investor confidence in its financial strength and market position.
💸 Motorola Solutions (MSI)
Motorola Solutions' stock gained over 10% after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that surpassed analyst expectations. The communications equipment provider also issued strong guidance for 2026, driven by record backlog and robust demand for its video security, software, and LMR products.
What’s Next?
Key market and macro news 👇
🧑💻 January Consumer Price Index (CPI) Release: Headline inflation expected at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.7% previously. Core CPI is anticipated at 2.5% annually. Critical for Federal Reserve policy direction and interest rate expectations.
💸 Core CPI Month-over-Month Data: Core inflation excluding food and energy expected at 0.3% monthly, up from 0.2% prior. Indicates underlying price pressures and sticky inflation concerns that are affecting the Fed's decision-making.
⛽️ Baker Hughes Rig Count Report: U.S. oil drilling activity indicator to release at 1:00 PM ET. Reflects energy sector investment levels, oil price expectations, and upstream production capacity expansion trends.
📊 CFTC Speculative Positioning Data: Commodity futures positioning across crude oil, equities, precious metals, and agriculture to released at 3:30 PM ET. Reveals trader sentiment and potential market direction signals.
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