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S&P 500

7,412.84

⬆️ 0.19%

⬇️ 0.34%

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26,274.13

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⬇️ 0.68%

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49,704.47

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Hims & Hers Pays the Price for Its GLP-1 Pivot

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) swung to a steep first-quarter loss after its strategic exit from compounded GLP-1 weight-loss drugs triggered $33 million in restructuring charges.

The company posted a loss of $92.1 million — or $0.40 per share — compared with a profit of $49.5 million a year ago, missing Wall Street's $0.03-per-share estimate.

Revenue rose just 4% to $608.1 million, also coming in below expectations of $616.8 million. Shares fell 14% in after-hours trading to $25.50.

The pivot was triggered by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly's legal actions against compounded versions of their blockbuster GLP-1 drugs once shortages ended.

Hims & Hers has now shifted to selling FDA-approved medications, though this transition weighed on margins and is expected to keep profits under pressure in the near term.

The company also flagged heavier investment ahead in international expansion, at-home blood collection services, and AI-powered health tools.

For the full year, the company raised its revenue guidance to $2.8–$3 billion but cut its adjusted EBITDA outlook to $275–$350 million. It also expects to return to net income profitability only in 2027.

$HIMS ( ▲ 3.34% ) has a Ziggma score of 85, as it ranks higher than peers in growth but trails in valuation.

Our takeaway

Hims & Hers made a painful but arguably necessary pivot. Competing against the legal teams of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly on compounded drugs was never a sustainable business model.

The near-term financial noise is real — $92 million in losses is not "noise" by any measure — but the long game of anchoring to FDA-approved GLP-1 medications and investing in proprietary tech gives it a fighting chance.

The market's 12.5% after-hours sell-off appears to be an overreaction if management meets its 2030 revenue target of $6.5 billion.

We'd keep a close eye on subscriber growth trends; at 2.6 million subscribers and a declining average monthly revenue per user, the next two quarters will be telling.

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🌍 Market Overview

Markets managed to inch higher on Monday despite a complex backdrop of rising oil prices and lingering geopolitical anxiety.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh records, with tech and semiconductor stocks doing the heavy lifting.

Micron Technology surged 6.5%, and Nvidia jumped nearly 2%, extending the AI-driven momentum that has powered six straight winning weeks for both indexes — a first since 2024.

The Iran-U.S. ceasefire remained the biggest wildcard. President Trump publicly rejected Tehran's counterproposal, calling it "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE," while describing the month-old truce as "on life support."

This sent oil surging, with WTI crude settling at $98.07 per barrel (+2.78%) and Brent crude closing at $104.20 (+2.88%).

Retail stocks bore the brunt of the macro anxiety — the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) dropped over 3%, its worst single-day decline since April 2025, dragged down by Kohl's and Caleres, each off more than 9%.

Elsewhere, HSBC lifted its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650, while veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised his to 8,250, citing what he called an unprecedented run in earnings estimates.

Citigroup also flagged the Nasdaq-100 as a preferred vehicle for playing the AI buildout.

🔎 FREE GOODSTOCKS RESEARCH:

Powering the AI Boom and the Energy Transition: Why GE Vernova Could Be a Decade-Defining Stock🔖 Read on Substack 🎧 Listen to podcast

Stock Moves Deciphered 📈

Monday.com shares surged almost 7% after the software company delivered a first-quarter earnings and revenue beat.

Revenue climbed 24% year-over-year to $351.3 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $339.1 million, driven in large part by the launch of its AI platform. T

🛜 Lumentum Holdings (LITE)

Lumentum surged 16.4% after reporting record fiscal Q3 revenue of $808.4 million — a staggering 90% year-over-year jump.

The optical networking company said it is effectively "sold out" of capacity even after a 40% expansion, underscoring the insatiable demand from AI hyperscalers and data center operators.

💉 Moderna (MRNA)

Moderna shares initially spiked almost 9% after a U.S. citizen tested positive for hantavirus — a rare and often fatal respiratory disease flagged by the WHO following an outbreak on an Atlantic expedition cruise ship.

The move was short-lived, however. Evercore ISI analyst Cory Kasimov noted there is no near-term revenue benefit for Moderna from this outbreak, pointing out that while Moderna and Korea University have been collaborating on a hantavirus vaccine since 2023, the public health risk remains low, and human-to-human transmission is rare.

Headlines You Can't Miss 👀

🛢️ WTI crude surged to $98.07/barrel as Trump rejected Iran's peace counter-proposal, calling the ceasefire "on life support" and raising energy supply fears.

🦠 Hantavirus headlines briefly spiked biotech stocks — including Moderna — after a WHO-flagged outbreak on a cruise ship. Analysts noted moves were "sentiment-driven," not fundamental.

🏦 Circle Internet Group reported mixed Q1 results — EPS of 21 cents beat estimates, but revenue of $694 million missed. The company raised $222 million in a token presale, valuing its Arc blockchain at $3 billion.

🍔 Wendy's was downgraded to Underweight by JPMorgan with a $6 price target, as U.S. same-store sales fell nearly 7% and the company remains without a permanent CEO.

🌎 The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing is on investors' radar this week, with trade negotiations and geopolitical signals expected to significantly impact global markets.

🤖 Citi flagged the Nasdaq 100 as one of the best ways to play AI infrastructure buildout, noting PEG ratios near two-decade lows despite elevated absolute valuations.

💰 The U.S. Treasury will conduct a 10-year note auction today, which will directly influence benchmark bond yields, borrowing costs, and broader equity market valuations.

🤖 Coherent Corp (COHR)

Coherent delivered strong fiscal Q3 results, posting adjusted EPS of $1.41 — a 55% year-over-year increase — matching consensus estimates.

Revenue reached $1.81 billion, driven by robust semiconductor demand and the AI infrastructure buildout.

🤝 Corning Inc (GLW)

Corning shares jumped after announcing a $3.2 billion partnership with Nvidia to expand U.S. optical connectivity capacity tenfold, including three new domestic manufacturing plants.

The company also raised its long-term financial targets, projecting a $40 billion annualized sales run rate by 2030 — a bold commitment backed by surging demand for AI network infrastructure.

🎬 Fox Corporation (FOX)

Fox delivered a strong fiscal Q3 earnings beat, with adjusted EPS of $1.32 — a 33% year-over-year increase.

Robust growth in its Tubi streaming service, combined with higher distribution fees and solid advertising revenue, drove the outperformance.

What’s Next?

Earnings to Watch 👇

🌏 Sea Limited reports Q1 earnings before the open — key read on Southeast Asian e-commerce and digital entertainment.

🛒 JD.com reports Q1 results before the bell — a critical barometer for Chinese consumer demand and retail recovery.

⛏️ First Majestic Silver announces Q1 results — watch for signals on precious metals and mining cost pressures.

📡 Vodafone Group releases second-half earnings — important for European telecom infrastructure and subscriber trends.

Key Macro Events Ahead:

📊 April CPI data releases at noon — the most critical inflation print ahead of the Fed's next rate decision.

🏦 NY Fed President John Williams delivers a scheduled speech this morning — watch for any shifts in monetary policy tone.

📋 NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Report publishes today — covering consumer financial health and credit market trends.

💼 NFIB April Business Optimism Index releases this morning — key read on small business sentiment and hiring intentions.

🌐 Trump-Xi summit later this week in Beijing — trade policy signals could materially move global markets.

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