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S&P 500

6,368.85

🔻 1.67%

Nasdaq Composite

20,948.36

🔻 2.15%

DJIA

45,166.64

🔻 1.73%

The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight weekly decline, dropping 2.1% for the week. The Nasdaq slid 3.2% week to date. The Dow entered correction territory, now 10% off its closing high.

Berkshire Rough Patch……and a Bold New Bet in Japan

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) have now fallen for eight consecutive sessions — the longest losing streak since December 2018.

The stock has slid more than 13% since Warren Buffett announced at last year's shareholder meeting that he would step down as CEO at year-end 2025, and is now sitting below key support levels from November and January.

Yet even as the broader selloff drags Berkshire lower, the conglomerate is making moves.

  • This week, Berkshire's National Indemnity announced it is paying $1.8 billion for a ~2.5% stake in Tokio Marine Holdings — Japan's oldest insurance company and, per Barron's, "one of the world's best-run property and casualty insurers."

  • Tokio Marine surged over 24% on the news, pushing Berkshire's new stake to a market value of nearly $2.3 billion almost instantly.

  • The two companies plan to collaborate on reinsurance and global strategic investments.

Insurance chief Ajit Jain, who oversaw the deal and likely collaborated with Buffett as chairman, called it a partnership that will "create compelling long-term opportunities for both organizations."

The deal echoes Berkshire's enormously successful bets on five Japanese trading houses — Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo — which have surged between 42% and 124% in the past 52 weeks alone, with a combined market value now exceeding $44 billion.

BRK.B stock has a Ziggma score of 93, as it ranks higher than its peers in valuation and financial health.

Moreover, analysts forecast the insurance giant to gain 10% from current levels.

Our Takeaway

Don't let the eight-day losing streak fool you — this is macro noise, not a Berkshire story.

The Tokio Marine investment is a reminder that Berkshire's insurance deal-making machine remains intact under Abel's leadership.

The Japan playbook worked spectacularly with the trading houses; applying it to a world-class insurer like Tokio Marine is a logical and bold next move.

For long-term investors, this dip may deserve a second look.

🌍 Market Overview

Friday was a painful session across the board. The S&P 500 hit a seven-month low, the Nasdaq confirmed it is now nearly 13% below its October record, and the Dow entered correction territory intraday.

  • The primary culprit: the ongoing Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, which sent energy prices soaring.

  • International Brent crude settled at $112.57/barrel (+4.22%) while U.S. WTI surged 5.46% to $99.64 — the highest close for both benchmarks since July 2022.

  • President Trump extended his deadline to attack Iran's energy infrastructure to April 6.

But markets remained unconvinced, as Iran's foreign minister indicated no willingness to hold talks with Washington.

On the monetary policy front, Fed futures showed a 52% probability of a rate hike by year-end for the first time — a stark reversal from earlier rate-cut expectations.

Fed Governor Anna Paulson said elevated inflation above 2% makes her "more cautious," while Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin invoked a memorable metaphor: "When you drive through fog, you don't want to put your foot on the gas."

Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, crossed 30 — a widely watched threshold that signals elevated market stress.

Meanwhile, Citi cut its equity stance to neutral, citing oil-led turmoil and the diminishing likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict.

Individual investor bearishness hit 49.8%, remaining "unusually high" for the seventh straight week according to AAII.

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Stock Moves Deciphered 📈

🤖 Datadog (DDOG)

Datadog shares tumbled 7.9% on Friday, hit by a double blow: the broader tech selloff driven by rising bond yields, and renewed fears sparked by an Anthropic model leak suggesting AI agents could replace traditional per-seat software contracts.

A cautious fiscal revenue outlook added to the pressure. The stock has now erased significant year-to-date gains.

💉 Moderna (MRNA)

Moderna dropped 7.49% as surging oil prices and rising 10-year Treasury yields triggered a broad risk-off rotation.

Biotech and high-multiple growth stocks bore the brunt — investors fled anything rate-sensitive as Fed rate-hike probabilities crossed 50% for the first time this year.

Moderna's pipeline-driven valuation makes it especially vulnerable to these macro shifts.

🚢 Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)

Norwegian Cruise Line fell 6.9%, pressured on two fronts: surging oil prices that threaten to significantly inflate the company's fuel costs and broader inflation anxieties that keep consumer discretionary stocks under pressure.

The company announced a board restructuring — adding five new independent directors in response to activist investor pressure — but the governance-positive impact was overwhelmed by macro headwinds.

Use Ziggma's Portfolio Simulator to test adding stocks to your holdings and see the impact on risk, diversification, and yield before making a move.

Headlines You Can't Miss 👀

🛢️ Strait of Hormuz closed by Iran's Revolutionary Guard; two Chinese ships turned away, Thai-flagged vessel runs aground — rattling global oil supply.

📉 Bitcoin slides 4% to ~$65,800, erasing all March gains and sitting nearly 50% off its October all-time record high.

🏦 Citi cuts overall equity allocation to neutral, citing negative macro signals and fading hopes of an Iran war resolution — removes small-cap overweight entirely.

💊 AstraZeneca rises after experimental drug tozorakimab shows meaningful reduction in COPD flare-ups across two late-stage trials.

🤖 NVIDIA is seen as having an under-the-radar revenue opportunity from new compute racks, including Groq's LPX; Wolfe Research says it's "not in current numbers."

🏭 19 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs on Friday, led by energy names including Exxon, Chevron, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum — all reaching all-time highs.

🕹️ Unity Software (U)

Unity surged 13%+ after issuing preliminary Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $130 million–$135 million — well above its prior guidance range of $105–$110M.

The game developer platform's profitability is improving meaningfully faster than expected.

⛽️ Entergy (ETR)

The stock jumped 7% to a new all-time high, extending a five-session winning streak.

The utility is benefiting from a defensive sector rotation and investor enthusiasm around a new deal to supply power to Meta's data centers — a high-visibility hyperscaler contract.

🚀 Halliburton (HAL)

The stock climbed 3.7% to a two-year high as surging global oil prices — Brent above $112, WTI near $100 — boost demand expectations for oilfield services.

Analysts are increasingly bullish as upstream activity looks set to accelerate.

What’s Next?

Earnings to Watch 👇

🥇 Americas Gold and Silver reports Q4 before the bell Monday — an early read on precious metals sentiment.

🔋 Sigma Lithium reports Q4 before the open Monday — key update on lithium pricing and EV supply chain health.

⛏️ Allied Gold Corp & Perpetua Resources report Q4 after the close Monday — watch for domestic critical minerals updates.

Key Macro Events Ahead:

🎤 Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a moderated discussion at Harvard University at 10:30 a.m. ET Monday.

📊 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will be released on Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET, a key read on industrial sector health.

🏦 U.S. Treasury auctions 3-month and 6-month bills on Monday at 11:30 a.m. ET: signals short-term yield and demand dynamics.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. The newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell assets or make financial decisions. Please exercise caution and conduct your own research.

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